Tuesday 24 March 2026
Oil prices up - what it means for Australian petrol in April 2026
Brent crude has risen sharply over the past two weeks while the Australian dollar has weakened. Here's what that combination means for petrol prices at the pump over the next 4 weeks.
What's happened in oil markets
Brent crude has climbed materially over the past fortnight, driven by a combination of OPEC supply discipline and rising demand signals from Asian manufacturing. Singapore MOGAS 95 - the benchmark that directly determines Australian wholesale fuel costs - has tracked the move higher with its usual one-week lag. At the same time, the Australian dollar has weakened, meaning the AUD cost of every barrel is higher than the USD price movement alone would suggest.
The two signals are moving in the wrong direction simultaneously
The worst outcome for Australian motorists is when oil prices rise and the AUD weakens at the same time - and that's the current combination. A 10% rise in Brent crude translates to roughly 8–12 cents per litre in wholesale cost increases. A simultaneous 3–5% fall in AUD/USD adds another 4–6 cents. Together, they can push the floor price of the next cycle trough significantly higher than recent ones. Retail prices typically absorb these wholesale cost increases over 2–3 weeks.
What this means for the next price cycle
Cities currently in or approaching a trough in their price cycle face an uncomfortable reality: the next trough will likely be higher than the last one. If you're in a city where prices are currently rising toward a peak, you can expect the peak to be elevated. If you're approaching a trough, the good news is that troughs still represent the cheapest point in the local cycle - just potentially not as cheap as two months ago. The macro signal adds a floor, not a ceiling.
What to do
If your city is currently at or near a trough in its price cycle, this is one of the stronger fill-up signals in recent months. Waiting for the next trough risks paying more for the same relative discount. If you're currently at or near a peak, waiting for the trough remains the right move - just be aware the trough may be higher than it was in January or February. Check your city's current forecast below for the up-to-date recommendation.
Check your city's current forecast to see whether now is the right time to fill up.